People shopping for homes in the Seattle area these days have the benefit of record-low mortgage rates and home prices well off their record highs of a few years ago. Here's a sampling of houses and condos in various price ranges and locations that have sold recently.

People shopping for homes in the Seattle area these days have the benefit of record-low mortgage rates and home prices well off their record highs of a few years ago. Here's a sampling of houses and condos in various price ranges that have sold recently.

In the $250,000-$300,000 Price Range:

In the $350,000-$400,000 Price Range:

In the $750,000-$900,000 Price Range:

Article courtesy of seattletimes.com

All information within is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed.

7-23-10

If you're looking for a useful way to interpret where we're headed with the U.S economy -- and housing prospects in particular - consider this from Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Richard Fisher:

He sees the national economy as sort of a football team that for 18 months was pinned deep in its own territory toward the end zone -- deeply in trouble.

Then we got some good plays. Housing took off with the help of the federal tax credits, businesses and consumers started spending, and the economy overall expanded for several quarters.

More recently we got thrown for a couple of losses as the stock market plunged on global economic jitters caused by the heavy indebtedness of European counties such as Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Consumer confidence tumbled and home sales dropped in the wake of the tax credits' phase-out.

So where are we now? Fisher believes that we are essentially grinding it out, with short yardage runs -- small gains or small losses in any given week, but we are still moving up the field.

"I believe we are going to (continue to produce) short yardage," Fisher told CNBC in an interview. More importantly, "I don't think we will go backwards."

Put another way, Fisher rejects the doomsayers' predictions of a "double dip" for the economy, where we slide back into recession again - which of course would be a major negative for housing and real estate.

In fact, if you look carefully at some recent economic and housing-related reports, there's evidence of those small gains, even if they don't generate splashy headlines.

Take, for example, last week's national home price data index release from Clear Capital. It documented quarterly and year-over-year gains in home values in most of the top 15 metropolitan real estate markets. Alex Villacorte, the index's chief statistician, said the metro market gains represent "a liftoff" from the lows registered last year and the year before.

The price gains, he also noted, come despite heavy concentrations of distressed sales in some of the largest markets. In the report, Los Angeles prices were up 13 percent over the same time last year, and metropolitan Washington DC was up by 10 percent.

Record low mortgage rates, well below 5 percent for extended periods, have been a huge contributing factor here.

Still another modestly positive sign that catch economists' attention: Homeowners have begun spending again for home improvement projects. A study released last week by Fitch Ratings projects a 3.5 percent jump in spending for the year -- not a spectacular number, but a modest one, pointed in the right direction.

Look for more of the same.

Article courtesy of

RealtyTimes.com

Following a surge driven by the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales fell with the expiration of the deadline for qualified buyers to sign a purchase contract, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April, and is 15.9 percent below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The fall-off comes on the heels of three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit.

The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. However, many closings have been delayed recently from a rush of buyers into the system and slow processing of short sales, in addition to the heavy volume and a more thorough loan underwriting process. As many as 180,000 buyers who signed contracts by April 30 may have missed the June 30 closing deadline for the tax credit. However, Congress passed legislation yesterday to extend the deadline for delayed contracts and President Obama is expected to sign.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit.

“Existing-home sales that close in June will remain elevated, but we’ll then see a notable decline for July and August.”

Congress also reauthorized the National Flood Insurance Program. Many lenders were hesitant to approve mortgages on homes needing flood insurance without congressional action and numerous sales have been on hold. The action is retroactive to a temporary authorization that expired May 31, and also is expected to be signed by the president.

Yun noted the tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. “Without the tax credit, there will be more aggressive price negotiations between buyers and sellers. The key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without stimulus medicine will depend critically on private sector job creation in the second half of the year. We’ll also keep a close eye on market conditions on the Gulf Coast.”

Through May of this year 495,000 net private sector jobs have been created; NAR’s forecast for employment growth is about 1 million additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2 million in 2011.

“If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions,” Yun said.

“In most areas of the country there will be no sharp snap back in home prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have experienced double-digit gains this year,” Yun said. NAR forecasts the national median home price to rise only 4 percent cumulatively over the next two years.

“One factor that could lead to price acceleration in upcoming years for some markets is if the very low levels of new home construction were to persist for another year or two,” he added.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 31.6 percent to 67.0 in May and is 14.8 percent lower than May 2009. In the Midwest the index dropped 32.1 percent to 70.8 and is 20.2 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 33.3 percent to an index of 82.5, and are 14.4 percent lower than May 2009. In the West the index declined 20.9 percent to 85.3 and is 15.1 percent below a year ago.

NOTE: References to local markets are from unpublished data. For more information, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Existing-home sales for June will be reported July 22 and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on August 3; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.

Information courtesy of Realtor.org

Matthew Gardner writes about a recent report from Goldman Sachs �

A recent report from Goldman Sachs has many people talking and asking questions about where home prices are headed as we head into the latter half of 2010 and look forward toward the next few years.

Looking at several markets, the report suggests that the metro areas of Las Vegas and Portland will show declines (-12 and -4 percent in 12 months and -6 and -12 percent in a 24-month period) while most of California will show very modest gains (San Diego increasing by 5 percent in 24-month and San Francisco increasing by 3 percent in the same time period).

Perhaps the most dramatic prediction suggested that Seattle real estate values were set to move lower by eight percent in the next year and 22 percent in two years.

These figures are quite extraordinary so I set out to review their methodology and discuss my feelings as to their analysis. These are my cursory thoughts:

1.   The geographic area that Goldman Sachs uses for their analysis is the same as the Case Shiller (CS) Index (a foundation for the historic information that they parsed). My issue here is that the CS Index geography for the Seattle metro area includes King, Pierce as well as Snohomish counties. It is clear to all that follow real estate values locally that we are suffering far more in the counties to the north and south of Seattle, and that to use this geography will likely skew results.

2.   They also consider mortgage delinquencies in their model. It is true that foreclosures are up in our market but not to a level that gives this credence. In fact we are well below all of our west coast neighbors if I look at foreclosures per household.

3.   They add mortgage rates into their model and it is my belief that, although we will see rates increase in the second half of this year, I do not anticipate a move much above 6.5 percent until well into 2011 if not later.

However, I am also not sure that I concur with the philosophy that excessive price declines back in 2008 and 2009 (far more in other markets than were seen in Seattle) will allow for greater stability going forward. If we are in an environment where we are creating jobs and economic growth here, why will we fair so substantially worse than our neighbors everything else being equal?

The analysis is interesting and forecasting is an inherently complex and difficult task, especially when you are looking at real estate where emotion is as strong an influence as logic. Only time will tell who is correct.

Information courtesy of Blog.Windermere.com

Matthew Gardner

June 24, 2010

Latest Existing-Home Sales Information

Existing-Home Sales Price and Sales Statistics

NAR releases national and regional existing-home sales price and volume statistics on or about the 25th of each month. Each report includes data for 12 months and annual totals going back three years. Reports are available for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Both median and average prices are included. Historic and custom reports are available on a subscription basis. Read more >

Pending Home Sales Index

This leading indicator for housing activity is released during the first week of each month. The index measures housing contract activity. It is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Read more >

Market Forecast

This monthly summary forecast table includes actual and predicted movement in GDP, consumer prices, home sales, home prices, housing starts, mortgage rates and more. Read more >

Economic Indicators

In addition to the existing-home sales series, NAR Research monitors and analyzes other indicators, including mortgage rates, new-home sales, consumer confidence, and Gross Domestic Product. The indicators are updated monthly. Read more >

Information courtesy of Realtor.org

June 25, 2010